The College Football Playoff Committee faces a decision that has altered the map of conference championships. A last-second field goal sealed SMU’s devastating loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship game. This outcome should not diminish their exceptional season or cost them a final college football playoff spot while Alabama moves ahead.
Selecting Alabama with their three losses over SMU would send a troubling signal. The committee’s choice could undermine conference championship games’ value. Teams might view these vital matchups as liability rather than opportunity. This goes beyond just SMU and Alabama – the very essence of college football’s premier games hangs in the balance.
Numbers Don’t Lie: Statistical Superiority
The raw numbers make SMU’s playoff case look better and better. The Mustangs showed their offensive power by ranking 5th nationally in scoring offense with 39.2 points per game. Their defense stands strong too, ranked 19th in scoring defense and allows just 19.8 points per game.
The strength of record tells an impressive story. SMU ranks 9th nationally in this metric and sits one spot ahead of Alabama. The Mustangs dominated their conference schedule and won their eight ACC games by an average margin of 19.4 points.
Some critics point to Alabama’s 18th-ranked strength of schedule compared to SMU’s 75th-ranked schedule. But this view misses the bigger picture. Alabama’s record has three losses, and two of these came against 6-6 teams. SMU boasts an 11-2 record with a perfect regular-season conference run.
The betting markets paint a clear picture. Analytical models give SMU a 74% chance to make the College Football Playoff, while Alabama lags behind at 26%. These odds show what objective observers think – SMU’s overall performance, even with their tough loss in the ACC Championship, makes a stronger case than Alabama’s three-loss season.
The Betting Markets Speak
Betting markets have spoken with remarkable clarity, and their message appeals more than any committee’s decision. FanDuel placed SMU as a commanding -1000 favorite to claim the final playoff spot on Sunday morning, with Alabama trailing as a distant +560 underdog. The sentiment gets stronger at DraftKings, where the Mustangs stand at -330, suggesting a decisive 76.64% probability of making the playoff field.
Professional oddsmakers have made their position clear through these numbers. SMU’s odds jumped dramatically after their strong showing in the ACC Championship game. Clemson’s head coach Dabo Swinney became an unexpected champion for SMU’s cause. “They better be in the dang playoffs,” he declared after their close victory.
The market’s strong preference for SMU shows a deeper understanding. Teams should not face penalties for losing competitive conference championship games, as this could create a troubling pattern. Programs might stop pursuing conference titles, which would damage the value of championship games. The betting lines point to a clear choice for the selection committee – protect these crucial matchups instead of rewarding Alabama’s three-loss resume, which carries the weight of that disappointing 24-3 loss to an average Oklahoma team.
Alabama or SMU: Beyond The Box Score
The CFP committee faces more than just picking between two teams – their choice will impact college football’s postseason structure fundamentally. Selection committee chair Warde Manuel’s statement about teams in conference championships being held in “high esteem” now faces a crucial test.
Nick Saban, the former Alabama coach, stressed the need to reward teams with challenging schedules. “I don’t think we want to do anything in this playoff situation that is going to encourage people not to play a tough schedule”. His former team could benefit from skipping their conference championship.
SMU’s story makes this situation more interesting. The Mustangs showed incredible heart after falling behind 24-7. They staged an amazing comeback but lost to a 56-yard field goal as the clock ran out. Clemson’s coach Dabo Swinney made his stance clear after the game: “SMU, they better be in the dang playoffs. What a comeback”.
This committee’s choice could “alter the landscape of college football forever”. Alabama’s potential selection, despite three losses including defeats to 6-6 teams, over an SMU team that fought hard in their conference championship would send a clear message – conference title games bring more risk than reward. SMU’s coach Rhett Lashlee put it powerfully: “It would be criminal if we are not in. It would be wrong not just to our team but to what college football stands for”.
Conclusion
The playoff committee’s decision now exceeds simple team selection in college football. SMU deserves recognition, not punishment, for their impressive season that culminated in the ACC Championship game. Their close loss to Clemson on a final-second field goal proves why championship games matter. These games create the drama and intensity that make college football special.
The selection of Alabama, a team with three losses that stayed home during championship weekend, would devastate college football’s future. Teams might avoid conference championships if staying inactive becomes a safer path to the playoffs. Statistical metrics and betting markets strongly support SMU’s playoff case over Alabama’s up-and-down season.
This committee’s choice will either protect championship games’ importance or create a dangerous pattern that could harm college football’s competitive spirit. SMU’s outstanding season showcases college football’s best qualities – from their conference victories to their hard-fought championship game. Their selection would prove that championship competition and courage still outweigh cautious strategies.
