From Contenders to Pretenders: The Rise and Fall of the Lone Star and Liberty City

What’s up everyone, this is Chris Bullock here – I’m not even going to waste any time, let’s get right to the meat and potatoes of our meal – the current state of two NBA contenders turned pretenders, the Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers.

THE LONE STAR DIMS IN DALLAS

Nico Harrison, congratulations. You’ve been designated the franchise guy for the Dallas Mavericks, and you don’t even wear a uniform.

I’m not talking about ‘franchise guy’ in a good way, either. He’s the ‘franchise guy’ in the sense that if ANYTHING goes wrong in Dallas now, YOU are the face that people think about.

Since the most lopsided deal in the history of the NBA on February 1 – Dallas trading away their franchise cornerstone, 25-year-old Luka Doncic, to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round pick – nothing has gone right for the Mavericks. While the Lakers have gone 11-2 since acquiring Doncic, here is how the Mavericks have fared:

1. 6-7 record
2. Power forward Anthony Davis was injured in his first game, and according to a report from Shams Charania, could be shut down for the rest of the season
3. Center Daniel Gafford is out for at least another two weeks with an MCL injury
4. Guard Kyrie Irving suffered a torn ACL in Monday’s game against the Sacramento Kings, and is now out for the season – a season where he is set for a player option this summer.

The team is still in playoff contention – at 32-31, they are 3.5 games ahead of Phoenix for 10^th place in the Western Conference – but that is of no comfort, seeing how they would not only have to win two games in the play-in tournament just to get to the playoffs, but if they end up with the 7^th or 8^th seed, they’re in trouble. If they finish with the 8^th seed, they’ll be wiped out by a hungry Oklahoma City Thunder, who at 51-11 have a chokehold on the top spot. If they end up at the 7 spot…they go toe-to-toe with the Lakers. I don’t need to go into how bad that will go for them.

There are many questions with this team – mainly whether they should shut down Davis for the season and just start fresh next year. There’s a problem with that no matter what answer they decide. One, if you make the playoffs and you DON’T have Davis suiting up, the fanbase is going to be incensed. On the other hand, if he does suit up and gets hurt (a very good possibility), you’re possibly doomed for the next season anyway. No matter the choice, the Dallas Mavericks are not set up for short-term success; and this is more or less the same team that Doncic willed to the NBA Finals just last season.

Now, here’s a bigger question: will Nico Harrison get fired this off-season? Here’s your answer: hell no. Why? Let’s get this out of the way: this deal was cleared with upper management. So Harrison has some support up top, and they will give him and head coach Jason Kidd next season to prove this trade was ultimately worth it. Now, can that change? Absolutely. But it’s unlikely. That being said…don’t let the Lakers mess around and win the championship and Doncic plays out of his mind. If that happens…the Dallas skyline will be a bit darker.

PHIILY’S CHEESESTEAK IS COOKED

On Saturday, March 1, the Philadelphia 76ers announced what we all assumed would occur eventually: Joel Embiid, their franchise centerpiece, will miss the rest of the season due to continuing discomfort and swelling in his left knee – the same knee that has gone through multiple meniscus surgeries.

Now, if you’ve been watching the NBA for a while now, you’ve seen how this story plays out.

Let’s start with this: when Joel Embiid is healthy and on his A-game, he is a top 5 player in the NBA – as noted by his epic 2022-23 season when he won his first NBA MVP:

66 games, 33.1 points per game on 34.6 minutes per game, 10.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and a career-high 54.8 field goal percentage

I place emphasis on the word “healthy” because during his 11-year career (technically nine because he sat out his first two seasons – 2014-15, 2015-16), he has only averaged a total of 50.2 games per season played, with a career-high 68 during the 2021-22 season. His playoff record, while a modest 29-30, doesn’t tell the full story: an Embiid-led 76ers team has not made it past the Eastern Conference Semifinals during his career.

His meniscus has been the culprit for both his and the team’s suffering over the last couple of seasons – playing only 39 games. While the team was 31-8 in those games, they struggled into the playoffs, and though he came back for that first-round series against the New York Knicks (which was highly advised against), they were bounced out 4 games to 2. Embiid was also on the 2024 USA Men’s Olympic team despite his knee troubles, averaging 11.2 pts, 3.8 rebounds and a block per game on 16.8 minutes per game. Now, I’m not saying that him playing this summer put him in a bad spot for the beginning of this season…but I’m also NOT not saying it.

It was bad enough that Embiid announced before the season that he would not be playing back-to-backs, but more than halfway past the season – he only played 19 of the team’s games, with the team posting a poor 8-11 record and outscored by three points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor. In short, he was a net negative for the 76ers. He has also been problematic off the court, with his teammates publicly calling him out for a lack of professionalism, and being suspended for three games for physically confronting a reporter who referenced his family in a local column.

However, none of this pales in comparison to how bad this meniscus injury was for Embiid. According to to Marc Stein’s personal Substack, “throughout the season, Embiid has met with more than 10 doctors, sources say, for counsel on overcoming the unrelenting discomfort and swelling in the same knee that has already been subjected to multiple meniscus surgeries.”

Now, just to understand why this matters to Philadelphia – follow the money:

2025-26 season: $55.2 million – projected 35.7% of salary cap

2026-27: $59.5 million – projected 35% of cap

2027-28: $64.3 million – projected 34.4% of cap

2028-29: $69.1 million (player option) – projected 33.6% of cap

Over the next 4 seasons, he is owed $248.1 million by the 76ers – fully guaranteed with no protection for Philly. Based off everything we’ve discussed, you can tell this is a nightmare scenario for the 76ers. Now let’s break down their options:

1. MEDICAL RETIREMENT

According to NBA insider Keith Smith, the 76ers could petition for medical retirement:

“76ers could petition for a medical retirement for Joel Embiid if he’s unable to play a year from now. At that point, an independent doctor, selected by the NBA and NBPA would examine Embiid. If agreed he can no longer play, his remaining contract would be wiped off the books for the Sixers.”

That would mean if Embiid doesn’t play again between now and February 22, 2026 (a year from his last game), the team could petition to the NBA and if he is deemed ineligible, he will be forced to retire (the most recent example being Chris Bosh, who retired due to multiple blood clot issues). The 76ers would still be on the hook for the rest of his contract, but they would receive salary cap relief, which would be crucial for their rebuilding efforts.

1. TRADE THE PROCESS

Now, this seems preposterous that you would trade the man who famously took on the nickname “The Process”, but this wouldn’t be the craziest trade we’ve seen in the NBA in the past few years (more on that next).

We’ve seen teams take a swing on can’t miss talent regardless of the injury history because just like in Las Vegas, everyone thinks they have the winning hand if they have the right card. As noted, when Embiid is healthy, he’s a perennial MVP candidate. The issue then comes with the aforementioned contract. Will there be a team that is willing to take on over $240 million for a guy that can barely play half the season and will be 31 in a couple of weeks? Look at the list of big name talents whose careers have been cut short by knee issues: Anfernee Hardaway, Brandon Roy, Gilbert Arenas, and Greg Oden – it’s not blasphemy to add Embiid’s name on that list.

1. WAIT IT OUT

The third option, while possibly the least enjoyable, will test both the organization and its hungry, yet impatient fanbase. At some point, if you are the organization, you cannot act on blind faith that Embiid is going to magically get better and lead you to the promised land. At this point, we’ve seen the best that Embiid has to offer. His prime has already peaked, and based on what we saw this season, there’s no reason to think it goes up from here.

Not only that, but at some point, the fans are going to turn on them. That’s just the nature of the business – if you aren’t performing up to par, the fans will speak – both with their mouths AND their wallets. You can’t be paying Joel Embiid over $240 million and he isn’t operating at that level while your team can’t put the proper pieces around him to win.

The 76ers are 21-40, only 2.5 games out of the 10^th and final play-in spot for the playoffs. Without Embiid, the playoffs are a pipe dream this season. And honestly, that shouldn’t sit well with ownership. There are a lot of questions that need to be answered – it’s better to start solving those questions now, because the reality is here: The Process has failed.